Brexit: Is There a Hidden Influence Driving the Politicians?

Brexit: Is There a Hidden Influence Driving the Politicians?

So, the EU agreed to an article 50 extension to Brexit, and 75% of the UK may well have breathed a sigh of relief, at least temporarily. British Prime Minister Theresa May recently suggested that if the UK's MPs pass her final deal proposal, she would step down. Her announcement has already prompted a very bizarre shift in interests. Shifts that suggest there are unseen factors driving the government’s attempts to leave the EU.

Unseen pressure moving Brexit

MPs, both left and right, have been quoted to say that if May were to leave number 10, they would change their vote and support Brexit. This provokes a few questions. Is the deal the problem, or is the problem stemming from the person proposing it? Surely, if the ‘deal’ is bad for the UK, it will still be bad, no matter whose signature is on it. Are British politicians putting their careers above the good of the country?

Moreover, many are wondering what is motivating May as she proposes deal after rejected deal. May’s leadership legacy will not go down in history as a positive one, so just what continues to fuel May’s insistence on leaving the EU? Respect for the original public vote? Unlikely. The Brits were ill-informed of the consequences of Brexit back in 2016. Now in 2019, the grim reality of losing EU status is out and the British public is singing a different song. A second referendum might seem contrary to democracy, but the same can be said for denying the people the chance to change their mind.

Three years ago, the view from Parliament saw no protestors. In 2019, the 'no Brexit' supporters are growing.

Not much about Brexit make sense. The 'Deal' keeps in place trading agreements and immigration mostly unchanged. So what’s the value of leaving the EU? Furthermore, a hard Brexit, experts agree, is economic suicide for the UK. So just what does the British government hope to achieve? If Parliament accepts May’s last desperate deal, the Brexit schedule will shift to May 22, which is still not a solution. Many experts say a two months delay is still an impossible deadline that will again cause troubles without solutions.

If MPs reject May’s last try at Brexit, then a clean slate is most likely the direction that the government will have to take. A total overhaul of the existing deal will be one option, which would require significant delays. There’s talk of “The Norway Model” but Brexiteers say this is simply switching the EU with the EFTA (European Free Trade Association).

Second referendum

The version that May and her supporters seem hellbent on blocking is the second referendum, a chance for the British public to confirm their continued support for Brexit.

According to the Referendums Act 2000, parliament must introduce a new piece of legislation to make a second referendum a reality. This is a very time-consuming process and impossible to achieve within the current extension—assuming the Electoral Commission would even consider it. Constitution experts are forecasting a 5-month to 6-month delay until a second referendum could yield actionable results.

No Brexit

Not so long ago, the patience of the European Court of Justice faded as the UK Parliament made a political circus in the final months leading to the Brexit deadline. The EU was open to abandoning Brexit until ‘no Brexit’ actually became a real option. Surprising everyone, the EU backed off saying that the UK would need a valid reason to cancel EU membership. Some say this was nothing more than a warning to any nations thinking about leaving the EU. Is the EU setting a harsh example to the other member countries?

The March deadline has passed, and the EU have lightened their stance. The UK can now revoke Article 50 without approval from the other 27 countries. When Brexit was first announced back in 2016, the British economy took a nosedive, but as Brexit loses steam, things are picking up.

GBP on the rise

Immediately after Theresa May announced a delay to the key Brexit vote on December 11, GBP climbed from 1.2482 leading up to 1.3204. The first signs that abandoning Brexit could restore GBP to former prices were surfacing. With talks of a better deal, a second referendum, and the increasing likelihood of ‘no Brexit’, the hopes of a Sterling recovery may well be on the rise.

GBP opportunities

Even though Sterling is on the rise, it has a long way to go before it returns to price levels that existed before the first referendum was announced.

As an Exness trader, you can trade both ‘for‘ or ‘against’ GBP. Whichever way Brexit goes, you can profit with a well-placed ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ order. Savvy trend-traders may have already clicked the ‘Buy’ button with high expectations, but FX News suggests you first get an approved Exness account. Once you're registered, wait, review, and stand by for concrete news.

When the UK announces the future of Brexit, GBP will probably react instantly. Smart traders boarding the trading train early should see some incredible price moves in a very short time.

Register for access to GBP trading and stand ready

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This article is a marketing communication. It does not constitute investment advice or research. Its content represents the general views of our experts. It does not consider individual readers’ personal circumstances, investment experience, or current financial situation. This article is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting independent investment research. Exness is not subject to any prohibition on dealing before the release of the article. Readers should consider the possibility that they may incur losses. Therefore, Exness is not liable for any losses incurred due to the use of its articles. Please note that past performance of an asset is not a reliable indicator of future results.