The Well-Oiled Currency: Yuan Trading into 2019

The Well-Oiled Currency: Yuan Trading into 2019

The clamor that has surrounded China’s recent government policy of restricting overseas business even further and making it harder for many firms to do business in the People’s Republic is on the mind of many traders worldwide.

Taking a deeper look though at what’s currently affecting the price of the yuan means looking beyond these issues to consider the bigger picture of the Chinese economy and its dependence on imported commodities. The dollar against the offshore yuan is a notoriously difficult symbol to trade, but it doesn’t need to be this way if you can grasp its fundamentals well.

Understanding the relationship between commodities and the Chinese economy especially now can give forex traders the knowledge they need to make money trading USD-CNH.

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Trade wars, commodities and the yuan

China’s enormous economic growth which has been sustained for decades has come with heavy reliance on large quantities of imported commodities, foremost among them crude oil.

Traders had noted strong gains for offshore renminbi until oil’s significant recovery around the middle of 2018. This also coincided with President Trump’s escalation of rhetoric on trade wars and threats of new and larger tariffs exchanged between the USA and China.

Despite these and dominant negative sentiment around the yuan in the middle of 2018, the dollar hasn’t been able to break the strong resistance level of 7 yuan.

Big movements on D1 USD-CNH
The dollar posted strong gains against the yuan amid the summer's tariff and trade war concerns. Could it be time for a reversal?
Source: Exness MT4

The People’s Bank can certainly take some credit for this, but let’s not forget that the Chinese government has also been very clever in preventing fluctuations in the prices of commodities hitting the value of the currency much in themselves.

Yuan trading and the dragon economy

Controlling the entire commodity market in China, the government in Beijing has created and expanded what it calls a ‘commodities city’ in Yiwu. This city is completely under the auspices of the government. Heralded as 'the International Trade City' by the Chinese government, Yiwu's full of every possible market from simple export of clothes to financial services and, of course, commodity exchanges.

Key for forex traders though is Yiwu Trading City's commodity boom. Fuelled by the latest drop in prices of crude oil, many forex traders are starting to see the yuan as ready for a bounce.

China's economic growth

The 24th China International Yiwu Commodities Fair has just taken place in October, driving traders’ interest in the details behind the economic data that come out every week from China.

Tumbling prices of oil over recent weeks combined with a government set on growth and control show that annual GDP growth rates around 6.5% could be sustained. Many traders are ready for the yuan to appreciate gradually but significantly against the dollar even before the end of 2018.

Time to sell USD-CNH?

The fundamentals of both the American and Chinese economies remain very strong even after the latest slump in shares around the world. That said, the yuan has made gains against the dollar amid the equity selloffs, supported by cheaper oil and a higher base rate than in the USA, although volatility has been high.

Oil's lost out since last week, helping the yuan
Gains for the yuan are seen as correlated with losses for crude oil due to China's dependence on the commodity. Source: Exness MT4

This week in particular is a big one for the yuan, with a whole range of data releases coming up including annual industrial production on Thursday. A breakout for the yuan is quite possible if the data come in even slightly better than expected.

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This article is a marketing communication and does not constitute investment advice or research. Its content represents the general views of our experts and does not consider individual readers’ personal circumstances, investment experience, or current financial situation. This article is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting independent investment research, and Exness is not subject to any prohibition on dealing before the release of the article. Readers should consider the possibility that they may incur losses. Therefore, Exness is not liable for any losses incurred due to the use of its articles. Please note that past performance of an asset is not a reliable indicator of future results.